| Practice area: | Downstream Terrestrial Applications | Exploration and Infrastructure | Space |
|---|---|
| Client: | N/A |
| Published: | 11 January, 2024 |
| Keywords: | #Earth Observation 2024 Foresight GNSS Horizon scanning PNT Satellite Satellite communications Space Space in Focus |
As we enter 2024 the London Economics Space Team shares its thoughts on the top trends to watch out for this year:
1. Launch vehicles – who is keeping to schedule? A highlight was going to be the first crewed test flight of the SLS and Orion spacecraft taking Astronauts around the Moon, for the first time since the Apollo era. However, NASA has now delayed the flight until 2025. Several new vehicles will continue testing in 2024, including Starship, SLS, Blue Origin , Vulcan and Ariane 6. The successful launch of Vulcan on 8 Jan has kicked things off but if the past is any guide, expect 2024 to be another year of challenging deadlines, as the complexity of these designs keep hopes firmly on the launch pad.
2. Debris mitigation regulations – turning acceptance into action? The space industry has now broadly come to terms with the need to act on space debris, with 2023 being the first year that a satellite operator (Dish) was issued with a space debris enforcement fine. The safe bet for 2024 is to expect more incremental developments as the complexity of balancing national interests, sustainability, and costs continues to weigh on decision-makers. However, watch out for “black swan” events that jolt the industry and government into action.
3. Satcom – who has got the edge? Watch out for the evolving outlook for deployed capacity in the satcom industry in 2024 as competition heats up. This includes rollout (Starlink), initial deployment (Kuiper), fundraising (Rivada and Mangata), procurement (Eutelsat-OneWeb’s selection of a Gen2 manufacturer), and technical challenges (SES’ mPOWER and Viasat-3). Equally, the GEO industry and their insurers will be hoping for a better year after challenges raising capital, supply-chain issues for new orders, and a spate of claims in 2023 hit insurance premiums. The development of software-defined ‘Flexsats’ such as Airbus’ OneSat and Thales Alenia Space’s Space Inspire will continue, but issues raising capital, fear of the NGSOs, and cost increases will still weigh on new GEO orders. While 2023 saw the failure of the Qualcomm and Iridium direct-to-device partnership, we expect others to make headway.
4. Satellite data – resilience and diversity: On the EO side, we expect governments to sign more contracts to procure commercial EO data to augment what they generate from sovereign assets for both civil and defence applications. The war in Ukraine and increased recognition of economic vulnerabilities will also ensure a continued focus on alternative (non-GNSS) sources of Position, Navigation, and Timing. Given the costs of implementation, solutions will focus on timing, terrestrial based methods of PNT, and receiver-level robustness. Even so, expect LEO-PNT to remain a key topic of interest in 2024, with Satelles, OneWeb, Xona Space Systems, and ESA pushing this concept.
The London Economics Space Team advises national governments, space agencies, and private sector organisations on the economics of space. You can contact us at [email protected]