| Practice area: | Exploration and Infrastructure | Space |
|---|---|
| Client: | N/A |
| Published: | 13 January, 2026 |
| Keywords: | 2026 Amazon LEO D2D Direct-to-Device Foresight Horizon scanning LEO Lunar Satellite Satellite communications Space SpaceX |
As we enter 2026 the London Economics Space Team shares its thoughts on the top trends to watch out for this year:
- Amazon to officially enter the satellite broadband market. 2026 looks set to be the year when Amazon’s LEO ambitions move decisively from promise to presence. Under its FCC authorisation, Amazon is required to deploy roughly half of its planned Leo (formerly Kuiper) constellation by mid-2026, a target that will test execution capability at scale. Whilst this target will almost certainly be missed (and an extension requested), Amazon continues to accelerate satellite deployment and lay commercial foundations: partnerships such as its in-flight connectivity agreement with JetBlue, alongside expectations of initial service availability in up to five countries by early 2026, indicate a shift from infrastructure build-out toward market entry. Assuming its plans come together, Amazon will emerge as a credible second hyperscaler-backed LEO operator, competing directly with SpaceX’s Starlink. That competition could have significant impacts on expectations around pricing, capacity, resilience, and vertical integration, while placing additional strain on launch capacity, satellite manufacturing supply chains, and spectrum coordination in an already crowded orbital environment.
- A SpaceX IPO could bring space investments into the mainstream. After several years of limited public market activity, 2026 could represent an inflection point for space sector listings. A potential SpaceX IPO, with a colossal valuation exceeding $1 trillion, would extend far beyond a single transaction, with the capacity to reframe how investors view the whole sector. Even if such a listing does not materialise in 2026, its high profile could encourage other space companies to test public markets, particularly those with contracted revenues, defence exposure, or infrastructure-like business models. The outcome will hinge on whether public markets can absorb space companies as long-duration, capital-intensive assets rather than speculative growth stories.
- Early-adopter MNOs will look to generate D2D returns on their investments. Having invested early in direct-to-device partnerships and trials, mobile network operators are expected to shift focus in 2026 from proving technical feasibility to extracting tangible returns on those investments. In the near term, returns are likely to be incremental rather than transformational, generated through premium coverage add-ons, differentiated enterprise and public-safety offerings, reduced churn, and avoided terrestrial capex in hard-to-serve areas. Over time, early-adopter MNOs that have already built operational experience, customer propositions, and billing and network integration will be better positioned as D2D capabilities expand toward higher data rates, broader device support, and deeper integration with core mobile services. In this sense, 2026 may mark the point at which D2D shifts from experimental capability to a genuine commercial layer of the mobile network.
- Momentum continues to build in lunar exploration and infrastructure. Lunar exploration re-enters centre stage in 2026, with Artemis II poised to return humans to lunar orbit for the first time in over half a century, and Europe playing a visible role through initiatives such as Lunar Pathfinder under ESA’s Moonlight programme. China is also advancing its lunar ambitions and plans to seek out water-ice with its Chang’e 7 spacecraft at the lunar south pole by the end of the year. The narrative is shifting from exploration milestones to infrastructure: communications, navigation, logistics, and sustained presence. The pace at which public programmes can create credible demand signals for commercial lunar services will be critical in determining whether the Moon becomes a durable economic domain – or another cycle of ambition constrained by budgets and timelines.
- Europe moves from declarations to delivery. Europe enters 2026 at a critical point. With mounting pressure to demonstrate strategic autonomy, attention is shifting from policy intent to execution. That ambition has been signalled through a record €22.1 billion funding package agreed at CM25, but the challenge from 2026 onwards is translating funding commitment into delivery of key space programmes. A central test will be whether Europe can better leverage dual-use programmes to align civil, security, and defence priorities, using shared space infrastructure to deliver resilience, scale, and faster deployment, while avoiding duplication across funding streams. While ESA’s European Resilience from Space is intended to support future EU institutional services, the European Commission is also advancing parallel capabilities through IRIS², GOVSATCOM, and the emerging Earth Observation Government Service (EOGS). As ESA and EC roles increasingly overlap, Europe’s ability to deliver will depend on clearer governance, aligned procurement, and predictable demand signals for industry. Ultimately, programmes will be judged less on ambition than on their ability to mobilise industry, crowd in private capital, and deliver at scale in an increasingly competitive and contested global market.
This post was written by Ashley Sofocleous, Senior Consultant in the Space Team. The London Economics Space Team advises national governments, space agencies, and private sector organisations on the economics of space. You can contact us at [email protected]