|Sector:||Education and Labour Markets|
|Client:||University and College Union|
|Published:||20 May, 2020|
|Tagged:||analysis of economic developments economics of education education EU forecasting higher education impact assessment international quantitative analysis UK|
As part of our ongoing work with the University and College Union on university finances, London Economics commissioned YouthSight to survey undergraduate applicants to assess the potential impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on UK higher education enrolments.
We asked respondents two questions about attitudes towards deferral – one relating to a ‘business as usual’ scenario – and the second scenario providing a potential illustration of the nature of higher education provision in September 2020 with the Covid-19 pandemic.
- Supposing that the university you have applied to or received an offer from will be operating as usual in Autumn 2020. In other words, all classes are in person, and there are few if any social distancing restrictions or limits on university activities or student life …….. to what extent would you still intend to go to university in Autumn 2020?
The likelihood of attendance was estimated to be 86.7%
- Suppose that the university you have applied to or received an offer from announces that it will not be operating as usual in the first term in Autumn 2020, with many classes delivered online, most university activities severely restricted, and many Covid-19 social distancing restrictions still in place …….. to what extent would you still intend to go to university in Autumn 2020?
The likelihood of attendance was estimated to be 72.0%
In other words, the likelihood of deferral amongst UK-domiciled students was approximately 17% higher as a result of the pandemic
In order to understand the extent to which some universities might be negatively affected by the ‘stabilisation cap’ and changes in student preferences, we asked respondents about the extent to which they might consider changing their higher education institution as part of the Clearing process. The analysis suggests that the likelihood that prospective UK-domiciled students would consider switching provider during Clearing stands at approximately 25%. This provides an indication of the ‘availability’ of UK and EU-domiciled students that would be subject to the stabilisation cap and the approximate level of minimum market ‘support’ existing during Clearing (75%).