Satellite communications (satcom) is a critical yet often invisible enabler of modern life. They support governments, businesses, and individuals, particularly in areas where terrestrial networks are limited or unavailable. A sudden loss of satcom would lead to widespread disruption across essential services, including air travel, maritime logistics and emergency response. The economic impact of such a disruption is estimated at €10.2bn and could reach as much as €20bn over a single week.

London Economics conducted a study for the European Space Agency (ESA) to examine this risk in detail. The study assesses the economic importance across five sectors – Maritime, Aviation, Consumer, Energy and Payments – by modelling the effects of a hypothetical seven-day outage of satellite communications across ESA Member States and Canada.

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Methodology

The study’s findings are based on a scenario in which satellite communications are disrupted for a period of seven-days, affecting all satellite-orbits, irrespective of the underlying cause. Other space -based services, such as satellite navigation, are assumed to remain fully operational.

The analysis draws on a combination of secondary research and primary evidence. London Economics reviewed existing literature and data sources and conducted interviews with 48 stakeholders, including satellite operators, connectivity providers, service users, national regulators, academics, and financial institutions. These inputs informed the development of an economic model to estimate the impact of a disruption on economic activity, measured in terms of Gross Value Added (GVA), as well as the loss of connectivity-related benefits to users.

The study considered wider societal and environmental impacts, including the number of households affected by a loss of connectivity and changes in CO2 emissions from potential efficiency losses.

Given the hypothetical nature of the scenario and the range of factors that could influence outcomes, the analysis presents a set of impact estimates under several scenarios.

Key findings

The analysis shows that satellite connectivity is most critical in environments beyond the reach of ground-based networks, particularly across oceans and in airspace. As a result, the largest economic losses during a seven-day outage are concentrated in the maritime and aviation sectors, which together account for more than 90% of the total estimated impact.

• In the maritime sector alone, losses are estimated at €9.6bn. Disruptions to vessel operations, combined with the loss of systems such as the Global Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS), would affect not only shipping activity but also warehousing and port support services. These effects would extend further through supply chains, increasing the overall impact.
• The aviation sector would face estimated losses of €307.6m. A satcom outage would disrupt more than 4,000 transatlantic flights through cancellations or delays, leading to passenger time losses, knock-on scheduling effects, increased CO2 emissions, and challenges to air traffic management operations.
• Impact on internet consumers are estimated at €262.8m. Around 2.2 million users would be left completely offline, affecting access to online education, remote work, satellite-enabled emergency messaging, particularly in remote or underserved areas.
• In the energy sector, losses are estimated at €73.9m. These are mainly driven paused rig operations, standby costs, and welfare impacts on offshore crewmembers who rely on satellite connectivity for communication
• For payments, no direct monetisable impact was identified. However, the study highlights that localised effects would likely be felt in remote communities where financial infrastructure depends heavily on satellite-enabled connectivity.

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