Google Lunar XPRIZE Market Study 2014: Media Summary – August 2015

aerospace||0exploration-and-infrastructure||24
Sector: Aerospace | Exploration and Infrastructure
Client: XPRIZE Foundation
Published: August, 2015
Document type: Report 
Tagged: ex-ante evaluation forecasting modelling qualitative analysis quantitative analysis stakeholder surveys and consultations other international

This follow‐on study completed by London Economics on behalf of the XPRIZE Foundation builds on the insights developed through the Google Lunar XPRIZE Market Study 2013, digging deeper into the consolidated quantitative market demand and opportunity valuations, providing an updated, improved and more in‐depth analysis of the market opportunities addressable by teams competing in the GLXP. This short note summarises the objective, scope, methodology and findings of the Google Lunar XPRIZE Market Study 2014.

The Market Study estimates the value of the overall commercial market opportunities addressable by Google Lunar XPRIZE teams to be US$ 2.4 billion in the 10 years directly following the competition (and US$ 6.3 billion over the 25 year longer term) in a newly created commercial (cis)lunar mission market. Whilst the market will initially be driven by public sector customers (52% of the US$2.4 billion market at 10 years), the private and third sector will increase in significance (67% of the US$6.3 billion at 25 years) to outstrip public sector demand over the longer time period.

The 2014 study sets out a (risk-adjusted) roadmap of GLXP opportunity missions underlying the estimates, although the study also considers three additional market scenarios: a moon‐heavy scenario, a Mars‐heavy scenario, and an asteroid‐heavy scenario.

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