| Practice area: | Downstream Terrestrial Applications | Exploration and Infrastructure | Space |
|---|---|
| Client: | European Space Agency (ESA) |
| Published: | 13 November, 2024 |
| Keywords: | #ESA Downstream Launch satcoms Space SpaceX Starship Upstream |
Launch has been one of the space industry’s fundamental constraints, imposing limitations on the size, mass, cost, and capabilities of spacecraft and the payloads they carry. This has served to restrict satellite communications (satcoms) to a small niche within a significantly larger telecommunications ecosystem. The arrival of “Super Heavy” Lift Launch Vehicles (SHLVs) offer a potentially revolutionary capability to the satellite communications (satcom) industry, but the precise impact of this development on satellite design, system cost, and downstream applications in not yet understood. In this paper, presented at 75th International Astronautical Congress (IAC) in Milan, 14-18 October 2024, London Economics and OHB investigate the potential for SHVLs to disrupt the satcom industry and assess the precise mechanisms through which this is achieved. In doing so, this study intends to equip key stakeholders such as investors, space agencies, space segment vendors, and downstream service providers with an understanding of the magnitude of potential disruption and what early-stage investments are required to best take advantage of the opportunities that SHLVs offer.
The development and testing of SpaceX’s Starship has received significant public attention and signalled the arrival of a new generation of SHLVs potentially capable of interplanetary missions and human exploration. Likewise, the combination of reusability and scale have suggested a further step change in decreasing launch costs. However, the precise impact of SHLVs on the satellite communications industry, the primary commercial customer for launch today, still requires further evaluation.
To address this gap, London Economics and OHB SE partnered together for an European Space Agency (ESA) Advanced Research in Telecommunications Systems (ARTES) study to assess the impact of SHLV performance relative to the current industry standard (Falcon 9) on the way satellites are designed and built, and ultimately able to address new downstream opportunities.
By relaxing the mass and volume constraints to system design, we find that SHLVs offer an opportunity to reduce the cost of individual subsystems and motivates a shift from a design philosophy focused on mass optimisation to one focused on cost optimisation of the satellite system. Further optimisation of system design to leverage fairing & performance improvements can significantly increase bandwidth deployed with each launch and improve economics (CAPEX/Mbps/month).
However, adoption of “low cost heavy” solutions cannot come at expense of system redundancy & reduced satellite lifetimes. Disposable design philosophies are only viable at very low launch prices. Since the the launch costs borne by the launch provider are not the same as the launch prices levied on customers, competitive pressure in the launch market is required to unlock some of these benefits. Likewise, the stated focus of Starship for Starlink replenishment in the medium-term and exploration in the long-term may mean that little of Starship’s capacity is available for other satcom customers.
Key findings from this study are presented in the attached paper and slide deck presentation which were prepared for the 75th International Astronautical Congress (IAC) in Milan, 14-18 October 2024. The authors would like to thank the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Advanced Research in Telecommunications Systems (ARTES) programme for funding this study and for providing useful guidance and support throughout.